Chapter 961 Crisis and Opportunity
Of course, the United States is also aware of this problem, so now the United States has picked up the British "free trade" script and vigorously developed its naval strength.
Historically, the United States launched the so-called "open door policy" in September this year, demanding more opportunities for "fair competition".
East Africa has not yet reached the stage of development of the United States. However, with the development of East Africa's industry, East Africa will also support the United States' proposition in a few years.
After all, the rules of the world today are set by traditional European powers such as Britain and France. Other countries are more willing to break this old world system, and East Africa is no exception.
"Continue to increase diplomatic, cultural, and political exchanges with South American countries, and especially support our agents. Today, the international market is almost completely divided, and if you want to eat more and occupy more, it means that someone will give up their interests. , This is obviously not easy to do, so we can only continue to work hard, open up new tracks, avoid direct competition, or improve our industrial standards and improve the competitiveness of our products," Ernst said.
To make iron, you still need to be strong. If the industrial level of East Africa is further improved, then East Africa's industrial products can compete head-on with other countries. In the end, it still depends on whose industrial strength is strong. After the industrial level rises, it will naturally drive the development of other fields.
Just like the United States, its foreign policy changes are also due to the rapid expansion of its industry. Industrial development has led to the improvement of U.S. strength. This is the prerequisite for the development of the U.S. Navy today and the guarantee for victory in the Spanish-American War.
At present, East African industry has not yet risen in terms of quantity, and naturally cannot compare with other major powers. However, as time goes by, East African industry will also enter a new explosive period.
In 1899, the previous industrial reform in East Africa was basically completed. A large number of new factories were built across the eastern, central and western regions, and the northern and southern parts of the country also realized industry from scratch.
In the central and eastern regions, a number of emerging industries in East Africa are growing rapidly. Electric power, machinery, petroleum, chemicals, and machinery have all achieved leapfrog development.
Especially, industries such as electric power and automobiles have not only grown in scale, but have also accumulated a large number of technical advantages. As time goes by, East Africa will have a great competitive advantage in the market of these industries in the next two to three decades.
At the same time, this also means that by 1899, the previous round of industrial investment in East Africa had been completed, and the process of industrial investment in East Africa began to recover.
This is also the main reason why East Africa is actively developing new consumer markets such as South America. After all, after industrial products are produced, they cannot be digested only by the domestic market in East Africa. The international market is even more important.
As for the international market, after excluding the colonies and spheres of influence of various countries, there are not many regions and countries for East Africa to choose from. South America is also the only region that East Africa has not set foot in on a large scale.
So Ernst said: "From an export perspective, our main markets are Europe, the Far East and the Middle East. Europe is the main market for East Africa's industrial and agricultural products, while the Far East and the Middle East are advantageous markets. On this basis, South America is the future of East Africa. The fourth largest market for trade.”
“The most important thing for the development of new markets is the binding of interests, so that we can achieve certain breakthroughs in today’s environment of high tariff barriers.”
Therefore, throughout the early 20th century, competition in the industrial field will only become more intense, but the impact on East Africa should not be significant. On the one hand, East Africa's domestic market is not yet saturated. As an agricultural country, East Africa's domestic market demand is relatively strong.
Just like tractors, electric equipment, automobiles, etc., East Africa's self-produced and self-sold products currently outnumber exports, and these industries rely on emerging industries, which are much better able to cope with economic crises than traditional industries. In the previous round of industrial investment in East Africa, an industrial upgrade has been completed and most of the backward production capacity has been eliminated. Against the background of other countries' vigorous military expansion, East Africa has invested more funds in technology and equipment updating, scientific research, education, etc. The field itself has an advantage.
Of course, this does not mean that the path chosen by other countries is wrong. If they can occupy more colonies and markets through military expansion, they can naturally cope with economic risks.
But Ernst is not optimistic about this path. At least for the current stage, military expansion will do more harm than good to national development.
At present, the strength of the various major powers is relatively balanced, which makes it difficult for each country to make up its mind to go to war. Without a war, it is naturally impossible to redistribute the pie. Of course, the Spanish-American War should be regarded as an exception, but the United States acquired Cuba and the Philippines in small quantities. , it is just a drop in the bucket for the United States.
This is the same as East Africa purchasing Mindanao. Mindanao has a small population and cannot be effectively developed. East Africa will not be able to obtain benefits from Mindanao for the time being.
Moreover, equipment technology is currently in a period of rapid iteration, especially the navy. The expansion of the U.S. Navy is actually to buy early and enjoy early, while Ernst’s naval development route is to buy late and enjoy discounts. Before the emergence of the dreadnought, the East African Navy There is no plan to significantly expand the number of warships in the past four to five years.
In Ernst's view, in the next few years, until 1905, the focus of East African countries' development was to vigorously develop the economy, especially to enhance East Africa's industrial strength. After 1905, they would then consider changes in the international situation and formulate East African plans. It is not too late to develop a strategy.
Of course, the frequent economic crises that occurred in the early 20th century did deserve Ernst's vigilance. Although history has changed a lot, the general trend of world economic development should remain unchanged. It is necessary to prevent the economic crises of other countries from being transmitted to East Africa and start a new era in East Africa. Disrupt the layout of East Africa.
Of course, this worry is somewhat unnecessary. Other countries may only have high tariff barriers, but most of East Africa is still closed except for coastal cities.
With this firewall in place, even if the economic crisis does affect East Africa, it will only have an impact on the economy of the coastal areas.
And the economic crisis is not a bad thing for East Africa currently. The crisis also represents opportunities, which will also be more conducive to East Africa's acquisition of advanced technology and equipment from other countries.
Although East Africa itself has many industrial highlights, they are limited to emerging industries. The gap with other countries in traditional industries is still difficult to close, and the economic crisis is an opportunity for East Africa.
Of course, the introduction of technology and equipment into East Africa today is very different from that in the 1970s. During the economic crisis in the 1970s, East Africa mainly solved problems from scratch. In the new century, the most important thing for East Africa is to make up for the shortage of East African industry. There is a big difference between the two.
However, this also made Ernst quite regretful, that is, at the beginning of the 20th century, East Africa could not play the role of the former Soviet Union. Although East Africa's economic system has some similar characteristics to the Soviet Union, East Africa had already invested funds in industrial development in advance.
But this is not a bad thing. The Soviet Union did quickly achieve industrialization during the economic crisis in the 1930s and enjoyed the dividends of the European and American economic crises. Although it was also an impact on the Soviet Union's own industry and scientific research, it could be avoided if it was properly managed.
In comparison, East Africa has taken a completely different route. After all, Ernst has always pursued steady development. In Ernst's view, rapid expansion of East African industry in a short period of time may not be a good thing. Otherwise, Hechingen Province Excavation of gold mines can solve the capital needs of industrial development in East Africa.
(End of this chapter)