Chapter 1123 Concerns in East Africa
Ernst is naturally happy to see the French government's calculations come to fruition. Only if competition between Germany and France becomes more intense can East Africa gain more benefits by eating both sides.
As for France’s small means, in Ernst’s opinion, it will have little impact on Germany. After all, East Africa is now in a period of rapid expansion of production capacity. Relying on the massive development funds obtained from large loans, all walks of life in East Africa have entered a stage of rapid development.
France’s so-called big deal can only be regarded as drizzle in the eyes of East Africa. After all, East Africa is not as short of money as Russia.
Moreover, Germany's dependence on East Africa far exceeds the expectations of other countries. Not just a few orders can affect the trade between Germany and East Africa, such as cotton, rubber, oil, rare minerals, etc. The scope of trade between East Africa and Germany is very large. widely.
As for cotton alone, Germany imports hundreds of thousands of tons from East Africa every year. It is obviously impossible for France to spend money to block the cotton trade between Germany and East Africa. That would be an astronomical figure.
In today's extremely rapid expansion cycle of production capacity in East Africa, it is impossible for other countries to affect East Africa's exports to other countries through the trade situation, because there is simply no way to buy them all, but France has no choice.
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France adopted measures to win over East Africa, and Germany was naturally not to be outdone. After 1913, Germany spared no effort to win over East Africa.
Germany has always hoped to bind East Africa to the German tank, but the East African government is not very willing in this regard. This has always been a headache for Germany. In the view of the German government, if East Africa can join forces with Germany, what will happen to the world? Almost no country in the world can resist this powerful "German Alliance".
Shortly after sending off Thomson, the German Ambassador to East Africa Kamon communicated with the East African government almost as usual.
Kamun came up and painted a pie for East Africa: "If East Africa forms an alliance with Germany, East Africa will gain British colonies such as India and Australia, become the hegemon of the Indian Ocean and Africa, and become the world's leading top power. A world order dominated by the Germans will also Established around the world.”
I have to say that the conditions offered by the Germans are indeed very attractive. If any one of them is met, East Africa's national strength will rise to a new level. But whether this pie can be eaten, the East African government obviously also has its own ideas.
Freer, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of East Africa, said: "Although East Africa has always supported Germany, we cannot bear the risk of war, so we can only provide Germany with all support except war."
As far as the East African government is concerned, Britain is not a paper tiger. As soon as the East African army arrives, the British colonies can be easily obtained.
East Africa mainly considers two aspects, one is the United States and the other is Russia. Because of the existence of the United States, East Africa is not optimistic about Germany's situation. Russia and East Africa are worried that cooperation between East Africa and Germany will allow Britain and Russia to reach an agreement in the Indian Ocean. Certain collaborations.
In the Indian Ocean region, Russia must not be ignored. You must know that Russia has always had strong ambitions for the Indian Ocean. The main reason why Russia has been unable to obtain access to the Indian Ocean is the British's containment of Russia.
Suppose East Africa turns against Britain in the Indian Ocean region, then Britain may reach cooperation with Russia to jointly deal with East Africa on the northern shore of the Indian Ocean.
Take the Strait of Malacca as an example. Even if East Africa wants to conquer the Strait of Malacca, it may have to prepare for a long war, because Malacca is too far away from East Africa, and Britain can rely on its terrain and fortifications to deal with East Africa. In addition, Britain can also Introduce the power of Japan and the United States to assist Britain in ensuring the safety of this transportation artery.
If Japan or the United States really gets the Strait of Malacca, it will definitely be a heavy blow to East Africa. Not only will it lose overseas territories such as Alaska and Lanfang, but East Africa may also lose the opportunity to go east out of the Pacific. The complex nature of international relations has made East Africa wary of the enemy. Britain's long-term dominance has given it a great deal of initiative. At least in most strategic locations, Britain has the ability to resist. This cannot be easily solved by East Africa through a few wars. , and as long as East Africa can be delayed, Britain can use the power of other countries to bankrupt the idea of East Africa.
In the final analysis, the world system established by Britain over the past few hundred years is difficult to break. If a war breaks out, most countries in the world will side with Britain. This is also the brilliance of British colonization. Almost everyone colonized by Britain In various regions, Britain has cultivated a large number of compradors and loyal dogs.
So now, without the guarantee of killing the world system established by Britain in one blow, East Africa is absolutely impossible to take the lead.
Even if East Africa can break this system now, the ultimate beneficiaries may be the United States, Russia, Japan and other countries.
In this case, it would be better to let Britain continue to linger and wait until East Africa is fully prepared before striking hard at the British hegemonic system.
After all, Britain is already in the sunset and is declining at a speed visible to the naked eye. East Africa should now use the United Kingdom to maintain the British system in the Indian Ocean region, slowly penetrate it, and wait until all preparations are completed to take over the British legacy.
If the order established by the British in the Indian Ocean suddenly collapses, it will definitely not be a good thing for East Africa. In addition to attracting competitors such as the United States, Japan, and Russia, if the colonial order established by the British collapses, it is also possible that a large number of countries will suddenly become independent. It was not at all easy for East Africa to master these independent states.
After all, if Britain collapses, East Africa will become one of their biggest threats. In this case, they might as well continue to cooperate with Britain, the United States or Japan. At least these countries are far away, which can give them a sense of security. .
All in all, East Africa does not want the British colonial system in the Indian Ocean to suddenly collapse at this time, just like some European countries did not want the Soviet Union to suddenly disintegrate in previous generations.
When the Soviet Union existed, they were able to eat both sides and live a very prosperous life. But once the Soviet Union disappeared, the United States became the only one.
Take France, for example. When the Soviet Union existed, France could become a prominent power and even lead the establishment of the European Union. However, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, France's influence dissipated at a speed visible to the naked eye, and it became a target for the United States. This was also what France hoped for later. The Far Eastern Empire assumes the responsibility of being one of the world's poles and is an important reason for confronting the United States.
Because East Africa was established late, its international influence has always been very limited. In recent years, although East Africa has actively expanded its influence in other countries and regions, this process still requires a long wait.
For example, along the coast of the Persian Gulf, East Africa has just obtained the territory of the Beibu Gulf, and other local forces still follow the British. In the Indian Ocean coastal areas such as India and Southeast Asia, East Africa's influence is even weaker.
So if East Africa wants to gain hegemony in the Indian Ocean, there are many factors to consider, and it is definitely not something that can be easily solved by a war as Carmon said.
Of course, the fundamental reason is that East Africa is not optimistic that Germany can win in Europe, unless Germany defeats the three major powers of Britain, France and Russia at the same time, and can block the United States on the Atlantic coast, but Germany alone obviously cannot achieve this. degree.
The possibility of Germany failing in Europe is too high, and if Germany fails, East Africa may face siege from other countries. Although there is no risk of national subjugation, the possibility of turning East Africa into a large "North Korea" is still very high. , and now East Africa does not want to be closed off again.
In the final analysis, East Africa is unwilling to bear the risk of war. As long as East Africa can remain neutral, it can gain benefits. Normal people know how to choose, and East Africa does not have the gambling spirit of countries like Germany and Japan.
(End of this chapter)