Chapter 1085 Transaction between the two countries
Suppose there is a war between Britain and East Africa, it will naturally be reflected at two levels: naval warfare and land warfare. The British Army can be said to be the weakest among the major powers in the world, so the battle between the two countries must be dominated by naval warfare.
Although on the surface, the British Royal Navy is far more powerful than East Africa. The strength of the Royal Navy is five times that of East Africa, and the total tonnage of ships has reached an astonishing two million tons. However, the total tonnage of East African naval ships has just exceeded Four hundred thousand tons.
At present, the East African Navy ranks sixth in the world in terms of total tonnage of naval ships. In order, they are Britain, the United States, Germany, France, Japan, and East Africa.
After Japan benefited from the warship bonus sent by Russia, its total naval tonnage reached more than 400,000 tons, currently ranking above East Africa. The United States, Germany, and France all have more than 800,000 tons. There is currently no naval tonnage among the three countries. widen the gap.
Looking at it this way, the East African Navy does not have a prominent position among the world's naval powers. However, taking into account the quality of the East African Navy's warships, the East African Navy should be ranked fifth in the world.
Although the scale of the Japanese navy is larger than that of East Africa, many warships use old goods from captured Russians, and East Africa also has the advantage of dreadnoughts and submarines.
Even so, the gap between the East African navy and the four countries of Britain, the United States, Germany and France is still quite wide, which also reflects the urgent need to restart the naval arms race in East Africa.
If it lags too far behind other countries, although it will not become a meal for other powers, it will not be easy for East Africa to benefit from the changes in the international situation in the future.
On this basis, the United States, Germany, and France were pursuing the United Kingdom, and the United Kingdom was forced to adopt the two-power standard to ensure the superiority of its own navy. The more countries participating, the more and more the United Kingdom became unable to do what it wanted. This is why the United Kingdom The main reason for the urgent desire to stop the arms race in East Africa at the naval level.
As for forcing the East African Navy to end the arms race through war, Britain cannot bear this risk. The Japanese and Russian navies have only been in the past few years. The Japanese navy can defeat the strong with the weak. The East African navy may not be unable to achieve this effect, although the probability is very small.
If Britain suffered a Russian-style defeat and faced naval competition between Germany and France in Europe, the consequences would be disastrous.
Of course, Britain does not want a war with East Africa, and East Africa also does not want to be a wedding dress for others. Plus Russell has just given in, Ernst will naturally not give up this opportunity to extort a sum of money from the British government.
Ernst deliberately said: "Becoming a world naval power has always been an important goal for us in East Africa. Although it is not as powerful as your Royal Navy, it cannot be much worse than the United States, Germany and France, so it is expensive. It is unrealistic for my country to want our country to take the initiative to stop the naval competition. The current changes in the world's naval structure require us to have strong maritime power in East Africa to ensure East Africa's status and interests."
And Ernst’s words did not surprise Russell. As a world power, it is understandable that East Africa is developing maritime power. After all, Japan can temporarily be ranked first in East Africa. If you think about it in another way, Russell may not be able to accept it.
However, what Ernst just said clearly has a subtext, and he did not say it to death. It is unrealistic to stop the naval race, but there is room for flexibility in the extent of participation in the naval race.
Assuming that according to what Ernst said, the East African navy targets the United States, Germany, and France, it would obviously be extremely detrimental to the United Kingdom, because the total tonnage of the navies of the three countries is close to one million tons, which is far from the three countries. limit.
After all, Japan is frantically increasing the total tonnage of its navy to more than 400,000 tons, and East Africa's national power is obviously much stronger than Japan's. If the East African government also adopts the Japanese-style naval development model, it is not unreasonable to establish a navy that has always been inconsistent with its national power. possible.
If nothing else, the British government positions East Africa as a world power on the same level as France, so the lower limit of the East African navy should be based on France. As for the upper limit, it is difficult to judge. But no matter which model the East African Navy chooses in the future, it is not good news for Britain. This means that a powerful naval force that is not weaker than the United States, Germany, and France will rise in the Indian Ocean and the South Atlantic, and will not be easily interfered by Britain. .
If East Africa uses this navy to dominate the Indian Ocean, it will not be difficult. After all, the British naval power cannot be concentrated. For example, the Royal Navy in the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean cannot easily change.
Assuming that it comes to this, then India and a number of British colonies along the Indian Ocean, as well as colonies in the Far East, will be at great risk. This is absolutely unacceptable to the UK.
After thinking about this, Russell became more determined to limit the size of the East African navy. If the East African navy rises, it may trigger the collapse of the entire British hegemony.
Russell, who broke out in a cold sweat, hurriedly said to Ernst: "The United Kingdom has absolutely no intention to threaten or restrict the development of East Africa. We are essentially trying to maintain regional stability, and to show the empire's sincerity, on the issues of the Persian Gulf and South America we Huge concessions can be made to East Africa, but the premise is that East Africa must control the size of its navy within a low-risk range.”
Russell's guarantee can be said to have represented the UK's bottom line. If East Africa refuses to take hard and soft measures, then the UK can only nip the danger in the bud. Although the bud of danger in East Africa is somewhat strong, when it comes to the issue of British hegemony, the UK will absolutely Have such determination.
At this point, Ernst's goal has been achieved. In Ernst's view, East Africa does not have the ability to challenge the United Kingdom at this stage, and there is no need to do so, so it is the best choice to accept it as soon as possible.
So Ernst said: "Our requirements in East Africa are actually very simple. One is to ensure that our country has a fairer competitive environment in the international market. This is not limited to South America. The other is that we in East Africa should gain considerable access to the Indian Ocean region." Corresponding interest requirements, especially a solid overseas pivot, serve as the basic support for East Africa to ensure its national interests.”
Ernst’s words can be summed up in five words: we need markets and we need land.
The market is well understood. After the completion of the Second Five-Year Plan, the industrial development of East Africa has reached a bottleneck, especially the demand for overseas markets is more urgent. Although Ernst mentioned before, East Africa represents a population of 100 million, but the whole world There is still a vast market of 2 billion.
The world market is mainly in the hands of the British. Under the British colonial and dominant international order, the United Kingdom is equivalent to the actual controller of the world market. The external expansion of East African industry cannot bypass the United Kingdom.
Therefore, if the UK can take the initiative to give up part of its market, even if it allows East Africa to have a fair competition environment, it will be of great benefit to the current industrial development of East Africa.
As for key locations, Ernst’s description is rather vague. Along the Indian Ocean coast, apart from its own territory, East Africa almost lacks strategic fulcrums that can be used. Specifically, it is the Red Sea coast, the Arabian Sea coast, the Persian Gulf coast and the East Indian Ocean region.
Therefore, East Africa urgently needs to build its own sphere of influence in the above-mentioned areas, so that East Africa’s influence on the Indian Ocean coast can be further expanded, and this cannot avoid the British.
Just as Russell thought, if East Africa cannot be obtained through other means, then East Africa can only be taken from the British through war, but only after the East African navy becomes stronger.
Ernst added: "Of course, differences definitely exist, but as long as the two countries have the idea of negotiation, there is no problem that cannot be solved. As for the detailed discussions, it will be analyzed bit by bit by the East African government and your country."
(End of this chapter)