Chapter 1013: Taking sides
"Your Highness, now is the time to express our country's attitude. Based on the various intelligence we have compiled, it can be basically determined that Tsarist Russia and Japan will eventually have a war, and both sides are making preparations for this war." Felix said.
“Russia’s internal thoughts on war with Japan have been revealed. According to gossip, the Russian government has long concluded that war with Japan will occur between 1903 and 1905.”
“So, the attitude towards war is not a sudden idea, but a major event that Russia has planned for a long time. The intelligence we have collected from Europe and the Far East also points out that the Russian government is recently strengthening its military forces in the Far East.”
“So the war news leaked from Russia is obviously not groundless, and they are very likely to take the lead in launching an attack on Japan.”
Ernst basically agreed with Felix's inference. However, the Russo-Japanese War in the previous life began with Japan's sneak attack on the Russian army. However, Felix could not have thought of Japan, a "small" country, so unreasonable. Martial ethics.
Of course, Ernst did not interrupt Felix, but allowed him to continue.
“At the same time, Japan is also actively preparing for war, especially after signing relevant agreements with the United Kingdom. Military cooperation between the two countries has become increasingly frequent. It is estimated that behind Japan there is support from the United States and the Far Eastern Empire.”
It is impossible to imagine that cooperation between the United Kingdom and Japan is not frequent. After all, most of the ships in the Japanese fleet come from or imitate the British.
It is not surprising that the Far Eastern Empire supports Japan. This is not a random speculation by East African officials, but has real evidence. Although there is no official statement, there are already many important figures in the Far Eastern Empire who have contacts with Japan. There is obviously something behind this. Government instructions.
But this is also understandable. Although the two countries have had a war, Tsarist Russia now poses a far greater threat to the Far Eastern Empire than Japan.
At present, Tsarist Russia’s Pacific Fleet is stationed in Lushun, and many military forces have illegally entered the territory of the Far Eastern Empire. Therefore, from a bright perspective, Tsarist Russia has caused serious damage to the core interests of the Far Eastern Empire.
Of course, from the 19th century to the early 20th century, “any country would be so wary of being a neighbor to Tsarist Russia, because the paper data of Tsarist Russia were too exaggerated. From today’s perspective, just putting Russia there is quite scary.” of.
Ernst also said at this time: "The possibility of a war breaking out between Russia and Japan is now at least 90%, and it is very likely to break out within this year or next year. Now the Japanese naval expansion is nearing completion. When the Japanese government The Sixty-sixth Fleet plan is completely completed, and war is not far away. "
“According to the estimates of our intelligence personnel, the Sixty-sixth Fleet plan should be completely completed next year, and the Japanese government cannot maintain this huge army. They can only maintain the operation of their country by launching war.”
“So Japan will definitely launch a war next year at the latest, and the only opponent Japan can anchor is Tsarist Russia or the Far Eastern Empire. Between the two countries, Tsarist Russia has the greatest chance.”
Japan has always been on the path of light military force and militarism, so it is impossible to stop. As for Russia, it is not so sure.
However, as long as either of the two countries is determined, this war is unavoidable, so Ernst determined that the probability of war breaking out next year is more than 90%, and Japan must be the first to strike.
As long as Russia pays more attention to Japan, it may change the direction of the war. However, judging from the various information Ernst has now obtained, Russia has a high probability of returning to the mistakes of its previous life.
Sweet asked: "Your Highness, what role should we play in this very likely war? Should we support Russia or Japan?" Ernst said: "But who wins between Japan and Russia has almost no influence on us. It has too great an impact, and in my opinion, Japan has a high probability of winning the war, but even if we are on the side of the winner, we in East Africa cannot become the first winner.”
“If Russia wins, France will undoubtedly benefit the most. If Japan wins, the people who benefit the most will be Britain and France. Therefore, we in East Africa do not need to take sides easily.”
“For us now, that is to actively seek benefits from this war as much as possible without affecting the economic development of our country. Among Japan and Russia, our interests in Russia are the greatest, so we must try our best to benefit from this war. Russia reaps the benefits.”
Russia is one of the largest markets in East Africa and is rich in resources. In addition, the Russian Black Sea has direct access to the east coast of East Africa, which makes Russia an important economic partner in East Africa.
So compared to Japan, Russia is more important to East Africa, so when betting between the two countries, Ernst must choose Russia, even if Russia has a high probability of losing in the war.
"Russia is one of the most important markets for my country's agricultural products and industrial products, especially the consumption of high-end industrial products such as automobiles and electricity. In Japan, our interests are almost negligible. The Japanese economy is mainly controlled by the United Kingdom and the United States. Even if we try hard, it’s impossible to squeeze in, and it’s hard for Japan to offer the bargaining chip that makes us excited.”
“In the end, whether it is Russia or Japan, their expansion in the Far East may ultimately harm our interests, so if Russia and Japan can both lose, that is the best news for us.”
In Ernst’s view, Russia’s defeat is the most likely. After all, the Russian navy is a superficial existence. Although the Japanese navy is not as large as the Russian navy, it is not inferior to any country in the Far East.
This also strengthened Ernst's attitude of limited support for Russia. Russia is very unpopular with many countries in the world.
But for East Africa, it is just the opposite. At least at this stage, the economies of East Africa and Russia are extremely complementary, which makes the relationship between the two countries always relatively harmonious due to interest issues.
Hence, it is absolutely impossible for East Africa to offend Russia. Instead, it must support Russia. This support will not allow Russia to win the war, but will only make Russia's defeat slower and consume more of Japan's potential.
So Ernst said: "By negotiating with the Tsarist Russian government, we can give Russia certain support in areas such as funding, but Russia also needs to show sincerity to make it easier for our industrial and agricultural commodities to enter the Russian market. At the same time, Russia should increase its cooperation with East Africa." The scope of trade, especially the import of petroleum and other products, will be smoother.”
The cost of Russian oil is relatively low. The oil fields developed in Russia are mainly located on the coast of the Caspian Sea. With a period of land transportation, they can reach East Africa through the Black Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, the Red Sea, etc.
ˆAlthough Romanian and Austro-Hungarian oil have more advantages in transportation costs, their output is relatively low and there are many competitors, which also makes Russian oil resources account for an increasing share of East Africa's imported oil.
The development of East Africa's oil industry and internal combustion engine vehicles has created an increasingly strong demand for oil resources in East Africa, which makes it impossible for East Africa not to pay attention to Russian oil resources.
While oil is only a typical resource, East Africa also has a prominent demand for other Russian products, including high-quality wheat, oats, etc. The agriculture of the two countries is highly complementary, with a tropical country and a cold temperate country, so that the dominant crops of the two countries do not conflict.
Moreover, the quality of Russian agricultural products, especially grains, tastes and nutrition exceeds that of other European countries, and is much better than that of East Africa. At present, in addition to rice, East African grains are more developed as raw materials for industrial production because of their quality and taste. It is no longer able to meet the needs of its people.
(End of this chapter)